The Australian employment data for October, revealed today, surpassed expectations by adding +55k jobs, surpassing the predicted 22.8k. However, the unemployment rate slightly rose to 3.7%, aligning with expectations.
Despite this positive employment report, the market’s response, particularly in the AUDUSD currency pair, was relatively subdued. Investors seem convinced that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reached the pinnacle of its interest rate cycle. As futures indicated minimal changes in the likelihood of an RBA rate hike during the December meeting.
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Although there was a slight increase of around 12 pips in the AUDUSD pair immediately after the release, breaking the resistance above 0.6500 seems challenging. The currency pair quickly retraced to a level below its pre-employment data disclosure position.
Australian Employment Data: Analysis of AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart
Upon close examination of the 4-hour chart of AUDUSD. A discernible double top pattern emerges, indicating a significant trial of a crucial resistance level. Notably, both peaks within this pattern have ascended to the extreme RSI overbought level. Underscoring the intensity of the current market conditions. This presents the potential for a repeat of the AUDUSD sell-off, with the prospect of retracement towards the midpoint of the established range at 0.6400. It’s essential to note, however, that the realization of this scenario hinges on the occurrence of another downturn in the US Dollar, adding a layer of complexity to the ongoing market dynamics.
The primary news release from the US for the remainder of the week is the weekly unemployment claims, making it a critical factor to keep an eye on.
