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US February NFP Preview: Forecast Points to 200K Job Growth

US February NFP Preview: Forecast Points to 200K Job Growth

The eagerly awaited US February NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) report is on the horizon, poised to reveal key insights into the health of the American labor market. With January delivering a remarkable surge in employment figures, all eyes are now on whether February will maintain this momentum. Scheduled for release by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 13:30 GMT, this report holds significant sway over market sentiment, particularly regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and the value of the US Dollar.

Expectations for US February NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls)

Market analysts project that the NFP report will showcase a notable addition of 200,000 jobs to the US economy for February, slightly lower than January’s exceptional increase of 353,000 positions. The Unemployment Rate is anticipated to remain steady at 3.7%. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings, a crucial measure of wage inflation, are forecasted to rise by 4.4% year-on-year, slightly slower than January’s 4.5% uptick.

Impact on Market Dynamics

Market participants are poised to closely dissect the NFP headline figure and wage inflation data, aiming to discern clues about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy trajectory. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent testimony hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months, contingent upon further evidence of declining inflation. Current market sentiment suggests a 75% probability of rate cuts commencing in June, reflecting evolving expectations.

Analyst Insights and Forecasts

Previewing the upcoming report, analysts from TD Securities (TDS) anticipate a moderation in job gains compared to January’s surprising surge. They foresee a mixed signal from the February data, indicating a labor market that remains tight but has yet to impede wage growth normalization. Meanwhile, recent reports from ADP and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics have provided additional context, indicating private sector job additions and job openings slightly below market expectations.

EUR/USD Outlook Amidst US February NFP Speculation

Market reactions to the US February NFP report are expected to be keenly felt, particularly in currency markets. Loosening US labor market conditions and Powell’s less hawkish stance have already exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar, propelling the EUR/USD pair to six-week highs. The outcome of the NFP report could further influence this trend. Positive NFP figures and wage inflation data may alleviate pressure on the US Dollar, while disappointing results could intensify downward momentum, bolstering the Euro.

Technical Analysis

The recent breach of the critical 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests potential for further upside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating room for growth. Resistance levels lie at 1.1000 and 1.1050, while support levels are identified around 1.0900 and 1.0856.


The US February Nonfarm Payrolls report holds significant implications for market dynamics, particularly in shaping expectations around Federal Reserve policy and influencing currency valuations. As anticipation builds, market participants eagerly await the release of key employment figures, poised to react to any deviations from forecasts. Amidst speculation and technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair stands at a pivotal juncture, awaiting the NFP report’s verdict to chart its course in the coming days.


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