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UK GDP Monthly Estimate for September 2023: 0.2% Growth

UK GDP Monthly Estimate for September 2023: 0.2% Growth

UK GDP for September 2023 witnessed a 0.2% growth, with a spotlight on the flourishing services sector. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) report reveals significant shifts in various economic dimensions.

September 2023 Economic Snapshot

In September 2023, the monthly UK GDP is reported to have grown by 0.2%, following a 0.1% growth in August. Which was revised down from the previous estimate of 0.2%. However, when looking at the broader three-month picture. GDP showed no growth in the period up to September 2023, consistent with the output section in the GDP first quarterly estimate for July to September 2023.

Services output was a key driver of the growth, increasing by 0.2% in September 2023, with notable contributions from professional, scientific, and technical activities, as well as human health and social work activities.

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This followed a 0.3% growth in services output in August, revised down from 0.4%. On the other hand, consumer-facing services experienced a 0.2% decline in output in September, and production output showed no growth. The construction sector rebounded with a 0.4% growth in September after a decline in August.

Monthly GDP Data Overview

When analyzing the services sector, the monthly growth is fuel by professional, scientific, and technical activities. Thus, experience a 0.8% increase, and human health and social work activities, growing by 1.0% in September 2023. The latter was influenced by the latest COVID-19 vaccination campaign, although industrial action continued to impact the sector.

Education Sector

Education, arts, entertainment, and recreation also contributed to the positive growth, while wholesale and retail trade experienced a 0.4% decline. Consumer-facing services, in particular, saw a 0.2% decrease, remaining 4.9% below pre-COVID-19 levels in February 2020.

Production And Construction Sector Stability

The production sector, on the other hand, showed no growth in September 2023, following falls in July and August. Manufacturing output increased by 0.1%, with positive contributions from the computer, electronic, and optical products subsector.

Meanwhile, construction output increased by 0.4% in September, driven by repair and maintenance, despite a 0.8% decline in new work. Anecdotal evidence suggested that above-average temperatures positively influenced construction output.

Revisions to UK GDP

Table: Revisions to Month-on-Month Growth for GDP and Sectors

Jul 2023Aug 2023

Revisions highlight adjustments to GDP growth estimates for July and August 2023, emphasizing the dynamic nature of economic data.

Several common themes influenced industry performance, including industrial action in various sectors and favorable weather conditions. The release also provided revisions to GDP data for July and August 2023, showing adjustments in growth rates for GDP and its sectors. Overall, the monthly GDP data reflected a complex economic landscape, with varying performances across sectors and the ongoing impact of external factors.

Conclusion and UK GDP Future Outlook

September 2023 witnessed incremental growth in the UK economy, with the services sector driving positive momentum. Sectoral variations, external influences like industrial actions, and weather conditions shaped the economic landscape. The construction sector’s resilience and the nuanced impacts on consumer-facing services underscore the multifaceted nature of the UK’s economic recovery. As the economic landscape evolves, continued monitoring and analysis are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the UK’s economic trajectory.


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