Canada Unemployment Rate Rose to 5.8% in November

The Canada Unemployment Rate rose to 5.8% in November, as reported by Statistics Canada on Friday. This increase aligns with market predictions, following a modest rise from October’s 5.7%. Alongside this surge, the economy added 24,900 jobs in November, surpassing market expectations of 15,000 new jobs.

Key Insights from Canada Unemployment Rate

In November, employment saw minimal change, recording an addition of 25,000 jobs or a 0.1% increase. However, the employment rate witnessed a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, settling at 61.8%. This decrease occurred as population growth continued to outpace employment expansion.

The upward trend in the unemployment rate persists, with a 0.1 percentage point rise to 5.8%, sustained since April. Total hours worked experienced a 0.7% decline in November, yet on a year-over-year basis, showed a 1.3% increase.

Average hourly wages rose by 4.8% to $34.28 in November, mirroring the October increase.

Sectoral Canada Unemployment Rate Changes

November saw a rise of 38,000 (+0.3%) in the number of private sector employees, marking the first increase since June. Conversely, self-employed workers decreased by 25,000 (-0.9%), offsetting the cumulative rises in August and September (+2.9% or 76,000 jobs). Public sector employee numbers remained largely unchanged in November but showed an increase of 98,000 (+2.3%) since June.

Market Response and Impact on USD/CAD

The USD/CAD declined from approximately 1.3550 to 1.3520, with the Loonie showing modest momentum across markets. This places the pair on track for weekly losses and potentially its lowest daily close in two months.

Preview of Canada’s Employment Report: Expectations and Implications

Ahead of the Labor Force Survey release, expectations indicated a forecasted increase in Canada’s Unemployment Rate to 5.8% for November. This tepid job creation might influence the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the policy rate.

The potential softer employment figures could lead to a plunge in USD/CAD. The release by Statistics Canada is anticipated to reveal a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.8% from the previous month’s 5.7%, with an expected Net Change in Employment at 15,000.

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Impact on Bank of Canada Policy

The Bank of Canada’s stance on monetary policy and interest rates remains crucial. The recent decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5% highlighted the aim to stabilize the economy and alleviate price pressure, despite acknowledging increased inflationary risks since July.

Employment-related data plays a pivotal role for the BoC, as a tightly constricted labor market can further elevate inflation levels. A stronger employment report could potentially signify future rate hikes, impacting the Canadian Dollar positively.

Canada Unemployment Rate Influence on Monetary Policy

Central banks globally faced inflation surges post-pandemic reopening, necessitating aggressive rate hikes. However, sustained inflation, partly stemming from robust job creation and increased spending, has led to a reassessment of policies.

The focus has shifted from prioritizing inflation control to a cautious approach, aiming to balance policy tightening without stifling economic growth. The Bank of Canada, amidst high rates impacting households and businesses, aims to maintain inflation near its 2% target.

Read More: Manufacturing PMI Rose to 46.7% in October

Market Expectations and USD/CAD Movement

The release of November’s Unemployment Rate by Statistics Canada on Friday at 13:30 GMT is anticipated to sway the market. Forecasts predict a slight rise to 5.8%, coupled with an expected Net Change in Employment of 15,000 jobs.

Soft figures typically weigh on the CAD, potentially causing an upward movement in USD/CAD. However, a focus on future central bank decisions might see softer-than-anticipated figures sparking hope for the end of monetary tightening, thereby boosting the CAD against the USD.

Expert Analysis and Technical Levels

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, notes the recent decline in USD/CAD and highlights key technical levels. The current resistance stands at 1.3626, with potential upward movement toward 1.3680, while a decline may find support at 1.3540 and further down at 1.3470.

Conclusion

The anticipation and potential impact of Canada’s November Unemployment Rate release carry significant weight for the markets. The outcome could influence the Bank of Canada’s policy decisions and potentially impact the USD/CAD exchange rate. The balance between employment data and monetary policy remains pivotal in navigating economic stability amid inflationary concerns.