Contents
Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, executed a meticulously planned military operation on September 19, swiftly recapturing Nagorno-Karabakh. This move avenged his father’s defeat three decades ago, dramatically altering the geopolitical landscape.
The Perfect Timing
After two decades in power and a previous victorious war, President Aliyev had long aspired to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh from its ethnic Armenian inhabitants, who seceded in the early 1990s. Elin Suleymanov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Britain, emphasized that various factors had converged to make this the opportune moment.
Shifting Diplomatic Realities
A crucial element was the diminishing intervention capacity of Russia, the West, and Armenia to safeguard Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite the enclave’s 10,000 fighters, Azerbaijan President 120,000-strong army loomed large.
This endeavor carried deep personal significance for President Aliyev, as it aimed to fulfill what his father could not due to time constraints.
International Response From Azerbaijan President
Russia, consumed by its Ukraine conflict, abstained from intervening. Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, refrained from involvement to secure Armenia’s independence. The West’s mediation efforts proved futile, leading Aliyev to forge ahead.
Azerbaijan’s patience with the status quo wore thin due to several “triggering elements,” including a landmine explosion that claimed civilian lives. Baku decided that enough was enough.
Read More: Italy Increases 2023 Debt Issuance as Public Finances Strain
A Decades-Long Conflict
Nagorno-Karabakh’s capture undid Russia’s longstanding hold on the strategically vital South Caucasus region, impacting oil and gas pipelines, bordering Iran, Turkey, and Russia, and situated between the Black and Caspian seas.
Aliyev sensed an opportunity amid Russia’s distraction in Ukraine, culminating in the swift military operation that secured Nagorno-Karabakh.
The 1988-1994 war saw Nagorno-Karabakh slip from Azerbaijan’s control, with Aliyev’s father forced into a ceasefire that favored Armenia. His successor, Ilham Aliyev, strengthened Azerbaijan’s military and harnessed financial gains from Western energy purchases.
Changing Alliances
The souring of Moscow’s relations with Armenia’s new leader, Pashinyan, presented an opening for Aliyev, who leveraged Turkish assistance to win back part of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further altered the equation, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh vulnerable.
Betrayed on All Sides
Karabakh Armenians felt abandoned, as Russian peacekeepers fell short, the West turned away, and Armenia distanced itself. The exodus of Karabakh’s Armenians into Armenia grew, fueled by fear of persecution.
Aliyev’s swift action fulfills his father’s promise, allowing tens of thousands of Azerbaijanis to return to Nagorno-Karabakh.
This lightning-fast military operation by President Aliyev marks a significant shift in the South Caucasus, altering the geopolitical map.
Disclaimer: Please note that this article serves solely for informational purposes. Thus, must not construe as financial advice. We advise readers to conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.
