Asian Markets Trends: Strong Anticipated and Data Releases

Asian Markets Trends in The upcoming week poised to bring forth a wealth of economic data from China, encompassing retail sales, industrial output, and inflation figures for India. Simultaneously, Japan scheduled to disclose its GDP, while Australia is preparing to release employment statistics.

Asian Markets Trends: India’s Economic Trends Amidst Festive Season

In the latest Asian markets trends, India set to unveil its inflation data next week, coinciding with the onset of the festive and wedding season in October. The surge in food inflation expected due to heightened demand during this period. Notably, onion prices have witnessed a consistent six-month increase. With a substantial 60% month-on-month surge reported last month by India’s Department of Consumer Affairs. As a result, we anticipate inflation to climb to 5.3% year-on-year.

Analyzing China’s Economic Landscape: Anticipated Trends in Industrial Output

China, in the upcoming week, is on track for a comprehensive data release. Industrial output anticipated to decelerate to 4.3% year-on-year, primarily influenced by base effects. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has also hinted at a contraction in manufacturing activity. Contributing to the overall economic slowdown.

Conversely, retail sales in China projected to accelerate to 7.5% year-on-year. That driven by the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns in the previous year. The impending ‘Golden Week’ holiday, marking the first since the pandemic, is anticipated to further boost retail sales. Additionally, China not expected to reduce the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rates. Given the persistent downward pressure on the yuan amid expectations of prolonged elevated US rates.

Also Read: US CPI Anticipating: Impact on Gold, EUR/USD and Nasdaq 100

Employment Trends Analysis: Fluctuations in Full-Time and Part-Time Jobs

In the preceding month, full-time employment witnessed a decline of 39.9k, while part-time employment increased by 46.5k. We anticipate a temporary shift of some full-time workers to part-time roles and a conversion of part-time positions to full-time. Resulting in a potentially slightly negative net employment change. However, with unemployment rising at a slower pace than the labor force, the unemployment rate projected to marginally decrease to 3.5% year-on-year.

Asian Markets Trends: Japan and Korea Economic Outlook: Analysis of Third-Quarter GDP Data

Japan slated to release third-quarter GDP data, with an expected contraction of -0.1% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted. This contraction largely attributed to a technical payback from the robust second-quarter gain. Weakness in manufacturing activity identified as a primary factor contributing to the contraction. Partially offset by the ongoing recovery in service activity. Private consumption rebounded despite persistently high inflation, while investment likely experienced a contraction. The net exports contribution expected to remain positive to growth. Core machinery orders forecasted to rebound, aligning with the recovery in semiconductor cycles.

In terms of trade balance, Japan is likely to incur a deficit in October, attributable to the weakened Japanese yen and elevated commodity prices. Nevertheless, exports are expected to record a modest gain of 1% year-on-year.

Korea is expected to release its unemployment report next week, with a projected increase in numbers following two consecutive months of decline. Although the unemployment rate might experience a slight uptick, it is anticipated to remain below 3%.

Philippines Monetary Policy: Recent Rate Hike by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Lastly, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised rates at an off-cycle policy meeting last month to safeguard the 2024 inflation path. Governor Eli Remolona expressed openness to further rate hikes if deemed necessary or if data suggests a breach of the inflation target in the coming year. The latest BSP inflation forecast predicts an average of 4.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the upper limit of the BSP’s inflation target band. Consequently, there is speculation that Remolona might announce another rate hike next week, particularly if the BSP anticipates the realization of risks to the inflation outlook in the coming months.